In today's modern football, we strongly believe that the Expected Goals (xG) is probably the most advanced statistics therein.

So if you are able to have a very proper understanding of how it works, you are definitely going to have a very significant edge that most casual bettors don't have access to.

So if you happen to be someone who only looks at the basic statistics like how many goals scored or the forms of teams playing that we're all used to, trust us, you are missing out on a lot of things.

It is this deeper data that we're going to analyze now that usually shows the quality of teams that you can't see through basic statistics.

For years, we've been using the xG statistics in every of DailyScoreTips predictions because we know that it actually shows us how well a team is performing or if a team is just depending on luck alone.

If you really want to bet with more precision, then you definitely need to learn how you can easily make use of xG when betting in different markets.

Don't worry, through this well researched guide, we'll walk through everything that you need to know about xG and how you can take advantage of it. So let's take a look at what it actually means.

What are Expected Goals (xG)?

Expected Goals simply take measurements of the quality of goal scoring chances being created by a team. In a nutshell, for every shot being taken, an xG value between 0 and 1 is being assigned. This value is strictly based on how likely the shot will lead to a goal.

For instance, a penalty has about 0.76 xG which means there's a 76% of the penalty becoming a goal.

If a team takes a shot from around 30 yards, an xG of about 0.03 is being given which simply means the team has around 3% chance of scoring from that distance.

For a one on one with the goalkeeper, the xG is about 0.35 0.50 which means the shot has about 35% 50% of leading to a goal.

So basically if you add all these shots xG up for a particular team, you will get their total xG for that match.

Why xG is Better Than Actual Goals

The fact remains that most times, goals scored can really be misleading, especially when you consider the role being played by luck in goals. It is the xG that actually shows you the true performance of a particular team.

You can easily see a situation where a team wins with 3 1 but their xG is a mere 0.8, while the opponent that lost the game has an xG of around 2.5.

So what this practically means is that the winning team got really lucky and the losing team was poor with their finishing.

As time goes on, if the winning team keeps depending on a very poor xG, they might not be so lucky like in the game they won 3 1. They might lose woefully in their subsequent games.

So in a nutshell, xG totally removes the effect of luck in a game. It actually shows which team really created the better chance.

Through deep research at DailyScoreTips, we've been able to discover that teams that usually perform better than their xG will regress eventually, which means their opponents will have better values.

How to Read xG Statistics

If you have a proper understanding of xG, you can easily evaluate the performance of any team more accurately.

If for instance a team has an xG of 2.0, but they only managed to score just 1 goal in the game, then they underperformed and were unlucky in the game.

However if their xG happens to be 0.8, and they managed to score 3 goals, it means they did not only over perform, they also got lucky in the process.

So if you calculate it over the course of the season and you discover that a team manages to score 45 goals from 38 xG, it means they are actually over performing and might find it difficult scoring goals in subsequent games.

xG For vs xG Against

There are two most important xG metrics out there, which is what a team creates (xG For) and that team concedes (xG Against).

What the xG for really shows is the quality of attack a team has. It shows the type of chances they create per match.

On the other hand, the xG against will show you the defensive quality of the team, which is how many good chances they conceded.

If a team has 1.8 xG For and concedes 1.0 xG Against, we can say the team is very good.

But if the team has 1.2 xG For and concedes 1.6 xG Against, that team is obviously struggling.

Finding Value Using xG

Through xG it will be very easy for you to identify teams that might have been mispriced by bookmakers.

If Arsenal have been winning but their xG shows that they've been clearly lucky, you can easily bet against them.

If Manchester United have been losing but their xG shows that they've been clearly unlucky, it means they're likely to turn things around in future games.

Final Thoughts

Expected Goals is one statistics you need to get used to if you want to spot some betting markets a lot of casual bettors will easily miss.

If you discover that a team has been over performing their xG, it is wise to bet against them. Also you should bet for teams that are underperforming their xG.

FAQs

1.What is a good xG per match for a team?

In major European leagues, we believe that an xG For of 1.5+ per match shows the team has really good attacking qualities.

If the team xG reaches 2.0+, this is a title contender xG.

2.How long can teams overperform or underperform xG?

It is possible for teams to sustain their xG variance for 10-15 matches, especially if they have a very good striker and goalkeeper.

3.Should I bet on every team underperforming their xG?

No, there are some teams that have very poor finishers, so even if they manage to create high xG, there would be no one to finish.